Really. The residential credit (Section 25D) expired December 31, 2025. Buy a system with cash or a loan in 2026 and there's no federal credit for you — full stop. What survived is the commercial credit (Section 48E), alive through roughly end of 2027, and it belongs to whoever owns the system.
So the play now: programs where a company owns your system (PPA, prepaid ESA, lease), claims the ~30% credit, and passes the value through as a lower price. Add up to 10% more in energy community zip codes. This is why solar prices in 2026 are no higher than before — despite pricier materials. But it has an expiration date. Once the 2027 deadline hits and qualifying materials run out, this pricing era ends.